After the ceasefire between the AA and the military council, there are rumors that the rest of the EAO will hold a six-month ceasefire. It’s unlikely, but it’s something to watch out for in the revolution. At the moment, the fighting between the military army and the ethnic armed groups is peaceful, except for the KNU. If that really happened, what would NUG prepare for? It doesn’t look like anything has been prepared.
If we were to analyze the situation as it is, the fascist army had to open a front in the entire country, but it was still strong. It could not open an attack against the revolutionary groups, but it could build up a good defense. Fighting the army in its current form is not as easy as it seems. It is obvious in the case of Arakan AA.
At a time when the AA was thought to be lacking in military strength, it launched an offensive in Rakhine. But it didn’t go as far as I thought. Although they were able to occupy small army camps on the borders, they did not reach a position where they could threaten the cities of Maungdaw and Paletwa. They could not even capture the military’s strategic hill stations in northern Rakhine. After about two months of all-out fightin, AA has run out of weapons and resources, so it is thought that a ceasefire has been reached. Targeting and blocking civilians that do not belong to the military will also happen. In fact, the war disaster of the civilians in Rakhine is not enough compared to Sagaing. This time, apart from the fighting, the villages in Rakhine have not yet been set on fire. Therefore, AA’s ceasefire may be because it is considered that it is not yet time to face the army.