US Secretary of State Blinking attended the ASEAN meeting held a few days ago. Blinkin told ASEAN to engage with the NUG and all other important groups. He said there is a need to put more pressure on the military council to provide humanitarian aid to Myanmar.
In order for a country like the US to recognize the NUG, it is necessary to have reasonable territorial sovereignty and a sufficiently organized united army (2). Territorial control is still difficult without air strikes. So, the first step is to properly compile all PDF and LDF files.
If the LDF is formed as a chain of command, it will become more powerful and get more help. The process of recognizing the NUG as a real government by the neighboring powers will probably speed up.
At the current ASEAN ministers’ meeting, the Indo-Malay-Singapore group overshadowed the Thai-Cambodian group and decided not to allow representatives to attend the Military Council. It means that ASEAN has only one option left to discuss with NUG.
At the ASEAN meeting in November, ASEAN is expected to decide whether or not the NUG will be Myanmar’s parallel government. Since September is the monsoon season, In October, and November, the military council may struggle more to avoid losing territory. It is important for NUG, LDF, PDF, and ERO to deeply understand these situations and build more unity. In addition, it is becoming more and more obvious that the decisions of ASEAN, the United States, and the EU are influenced by domestic developments.
Therefore, NUG should try to improve the status of NUG as a government at the ASEAN meeting in November. ASEAN’s recognition may influence the US, EU, and UN. So, the more ASEAN is able to organize on Myanmar’s friendly countries, the more open the way for NUG will be.
