While the revolutionary forces seem to be calm, the military council continues its work. The countrywide forced recruitment has reached 10 per week. So it is estimated that at least 40,000 troops have been recruited. The army is rebuilding its strength and has resumed small counter-offensives in some areas. So if the revolutionary forces also stop fighting, the military council can regain the upper hand. For now, it is expected to launch a major offensive, focusing on the western regions of the country where the army’s weapons factories are located, and the central regions such as Sagaing and Magway. There is little hope for the rest of the Karen and northern regions. If the next wave does not start before the rainy season this year, it will be a long way to reach a solution by the end of 2025.
