If the military council can hold elections by the end of this year, the situation for the revolutionary forces will worsen. If the military council can hold elections, it will gain more political legitimacy. As it gains more political legitimacy, the military council will work harder with China to reopen border trade routes. The military council’s tight foreign income opportunities will increase. If the military government is ousted from power through the elections, it will become stronger in diplomacy and will have more opportunities in international relations and economics. China will provide more military support to the military council. Under Chinese pressure, it will further restrict military needs on the border and in the mainland. Thailand, India, and some ASEAN countries will lean more towards the military council.
If the military council can hold elections, it will be able to reopen the areas it has lost diplomatically as it gains more political legitimacy. I see that the areas and villages controlled by the revolutionary forces, especially in the disorganized Burmese region, will be more violently destroyed. If we do not make major changes within these 6 months, the revolution will take longer than expected. The time has come for the war to be fought not in the air with mortars but in the real world.
