As we approach the beginning of 2025, the military momentum seems to be slowing down. There are only two cities left in the country, with the fighting continuing in northern Shan. Fighting has stopped in northern Rakhine. In Rakhine, the AA has temporarily stopped its offensive and is monitoring the situation. So far, except for the major EAOs such as MNDAA/ TLNA/ AA/ KIA, the rest of the EAOs have not been able to launch major offensives against the military council. In this situation, we can expect the next wave of military action to come from Rakhine and Sagaing Regions.
It is not possible to predict whether the AA will take the next step in Rakhine State towards the Kyaukphyu military or whether it will expand abroad. In Sagaing Region, many groups that have gained experience in northern Shan have returned with full weapons and ammunition. If Sagaing Region has not moved yet, it will never move again. The time has come to watch the capabilities of the NUG and local PDFs.
