The revolution is gaining momentum, but it is not clear when it will end. There are two main factors that are preventing this momentum.
The first is China. As you know, China is on the side of the military council and is trying to destroy the revolution. It is pressuring the northern groups and the KIA not to continue fighting the military council. It is closing the border trade gates and working with the military council to cut off the areas controlled by the revolution. Due to Chinese pressure, the MNDAA has stopped all its offensives and is issuing statements favorable to China. The TLNA is also having difficulties moving forward. Since only one AA group in Rakhine is not in contact with China, it can avoid the pressure and continue to attack the military council.
If China had not intervened, the northern groups would have captured Pyin Oo Lwin by now. They would have been preparing to attack Mandalay. If the military momentum does not slow down, the military council could be overthrown by the end of this year or early next year. Now we just have to wait for the next wave.
