The outcome of the Spring Revolution, which is being fought between the Military Commission and the revolutionary forces, may be clear by the end of this year or early next year. The Military Commission will regain as much territory as it lost before the election. According to the current military situation, the revolutionary forces will be able to retake Kyaukme, Thibaw, and Singu and Moe Kot in Mandalay Division before the election. In addition, they will regain control of Bhamo and Karen State in Kachin State. In this way, the Military Commission will gain a significant military advantage by the end of this year.
The second phase will be to continue the offensive in the remaining EAO areas after the election, as well as Rakhine, Karenni, and Sagaing. Therefore, if the current situation continues, the Military Commission will be able to regain control of almost the entire country by the end of 2026. In order to overcome this situation, I hope that the revolutionary forces will make major changes in the political and military situation before the election.
